First Blogpost on New Global Economy Blog: Globalization is not passé. It is changing its character

Peter Coy, an econ columnist of the New York Times has talked to several leading economists on the state of globalization and concludes “Globalization isn’t over. It’s changing”. In a similar vein, and against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Steven Altman and Caroline Bastion in their report on “The state of globalization in 2022” for the Harvard Business Review posit “the war will likely reduce many types of international business activity and cause some shifts in their geography, but it will not lead to a collapse of international flows.”

The changing character of globalization, is the major thread running through my book “Understanding the New Global Economy. A European Perspective”. In this entry, I summarize my take on a premature diagnosed end of globalization (see also the “Introduction”of my book, available as an open access preview on the book’s website), link to new analyses and comment on the changing New Global Economy, and make a short reference to US Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen’s “friend-shoring” idea. Read full entry here…

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New Book: Understanding the New Global Economy

Happy to announce my new book, published with Routledge. From the publisher’s website:

Understanding the New Global Economy: A European Perspective argues that globalisation is facing economic and political headwinds. A new global economic geography is emerging, cross-border relationships are changing, and global governance structures must come to terms with a new multipolar world.

This text is an accessible guide to the contemporary world economy, suited to students of international economics, political economy, globalisation, and European studies. It will also be valuable reading for researchers, professionals, and general readers interested in economics, politics, and civil society.”

More information and resources, including useful curated web links on the global economy, are provided on this website.

Publisher’s website: https://routledge.pub/GlobalEconomy with additional information and resources.

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Journal of Banking and Finance Special Section “Financial Globalization and Its Spillovers” published

On 16 and 17 February, 2017 the EU Erasmus+ sponsored Jean-Monnet workshop on “Financial Globalization and Its Spillovers” took place at the Technische Hochschule Köln and Maastricht University, jointly organized by Joscha Beckmann, Ansgar Belke, Stefanie Kleimeier and Harald Sander. This special section of the Journal of Banking and Finance presents five papers from the workshop. 

My editorial (jointly written with Joscha Beckmann and Stefanie Kleimeier) presents the papers in a broader context, highlighting “the importance of bringing the finance and macroeconomic literature closer together in order to gain deeper insights into to effects of financial spillovers.”

You can open access the editorial until April 28, 2020 using this LINK.

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Open Access to “The Travels of a Deposit in Turbulent Times”

My paper “The Travels of a Deposit in Turbulent Times: The Importance of Deposit Insurance Design for Cross-Border Deposits” , jointly written with Shusen Qi and Stefanie  Kleimeier and published by Economic Inquiry is now available “open access“.

In this paper “we examine the impact of the existence on an explicit deposit insurance (DI) scheme and its design features on bilateral cross‐border deposits (CBD) in a gravity model setting. We find that both the absolute quality of a country’s DI and its relative quality vis‐à‐vis other countries’ DI generally affect depositor behavior. However, during systemic banking crises, cross‐border depositors primarily seek countries with the best DI schemes. Similarly, during the 2008–2009 great financial crisis, the emergency actions taken by the governments, which supply and maintain these safe havens, have led to substantial relocations of CBD.”

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New Policy Paper on Cross-Border Effects of National Deposit Insurance Systems

Deposit insurance systems are a common feature of the financial systems of most countries. Their rationale is twofold: to protect bank depositors in case of a bankruptcy and, even more importantly, to avoid widespread bankruptcies as a consequence of bank runs in the first place. However, in times of globally mobile capital, customers might look for safe(r) havens for their deposits abroad, especially when countries are experiencing a financial crisis. This can lead to a global competition for providing the best safety and, hence, destabilize the financial system of a crisis country even further. In a new policy paper, published in Ifo’s DICE Report, written jointly with Stefanie Kleimeier, Shusen Qi and myself review our recent research (forthcoming in Economic Inquiry) and argue that there is a strong case for global and regional coordination. Our research therefore also lends support for establishing a common European Deposit Insurance System (EDIS) to make the Euro area more resilient to future crises.

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Debate Café: The Future of Global Trade

On 18 February 2019 I participated in a panel discussion on “The Future of Global Trade“, organized by  SCOPE and Studium General of Maastricht University. It was insightful for me to debate controversial current trade (policy) issues with a panel of experts from different areas of expertise. Moreover, it was good to see so many young people in the audience, participating actively.

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New survey on “Banking Market Competition and Interest Rate Pass-Through”

Banking Competition and Interest Rate Pass-Through (with S. Kleimeier), in: Bikker, J.A. and L. Spierdijk (eds), Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, Cheltenham (Edgar Elgar), 2017: 305-322.

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Keynote Lecture on Retail Banking Market Integration and Financial Stability in the Eurozone

In my Jean Monnet keynote lecture on the International Conference on Banking and Finance at the University of Warsaw on 10 July 2017, entitled “Whatever it takes: Retail Banking Market Integration and Financial Stability in the Eurozone”, I have highlighted the role of retail banking market integration for turning a still incomplete European Monetary Union into a more stable currency union.

The main message of the lecture is that retail banking market integration goes some way to provide more urgently needed risk sharing in the Eurozone, yet this might not be enough for two major reasons. First, the Banking Union is still incomplete. In particular, a single European fiscal backstop for the single resolution mechanism and the still lacking European deposit insurance is required. Secondly, given the empirical evidence on the reluctance of retail banking markets to integrate, additional public risk sharing is needed. Ultimately some fiscal solidarity in the Eurozone is necessary to make the monetary union sustainable.

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Deposit Insurance in Times of Crises: Safe Haven or Regulatory Arbitrage?

 

An updated version of this paper has been presented on the 2017 Biennial IADI Research Conference: Designing an Optimal Deposit Insurance System – Theory and Practice, on 1-2 June 2017 at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. See also here…

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Will a president Macron be able to reform the eurozone?

European financial markets are already betting on the victory of centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron in the country’s May 7 second-round election.

Are investors right to believe that the eurozone – the monetary union of countries that have incorporated the euro as their national currency – will gain new momentum with Macron in the Élysée Palace?

In this piece, written for The Conversation, I argue that Macron will have better chances to reform the Eurozone by pushing for a rebalancing of Eurozone governance rather than advocating “to set up a common eurozone treasury with a single finance minister”.

Instead, while in some areas centralization is needed to ensure stability, in particular with respect to a central bank that can effectively backstop financial crises and a full banking union, it might be advisable to renationalize fiscal policy.

The reasons are twofold: First, the political chances to install a European finance minister are minimal. Therefore, there is a high risk that Mr. Macron might achieve little or no progress in his term, eventually increasing the chances for populist in the next presidential election. Second, giving back full control over the budget to the national authorities also means transferring back the responsibility for solid finances and replacing the various fiscal pacts, which never have really worked.

Of course, this may require to reduce the debt overhang of the past. But by doing it, this would give more room for a sustained Eurozone recovery and – eventually – even more widespread support for new Eurozone-wide fiscal mechanism for burden sharing. Read more… 

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